A World Series Preview

The Yanks are back in the Fall Classic for the first time since 2003 and the Phillies are back for the second consecutive year.  Here’s how the teams will match up:

Catcher: Jorge Posada vs. Carlos Ruiz

Hip Hip Jorge has had a solid postseason in 2009 and is clearly the better hitting catcher.  Ruiz calls a good game, but it’s likely any difference there will be made up by Posada’s bat.  If Jose Molina continues to catch AJ Burnett, give Ruiz the advantage that game.  Overall Advantage: Yankees

First Base: Ryan Howard vs. Mark Teixeira

Howard has been a monster in October whereas Teixeira’s lone bright spot on offense was the game winning home run in game two of the ALDS.  He’s done little since then, although he has started to hit in the last few games.  Tex’s glove is much better than Howard and Big Ryan strikes out a lot.  Advantage: Push

Second Base: Chase Utley vs. Robinson Cano

Robbie hasn’t hit too well in October, but neither has Utley, whose one home runs and two RBI are a far cry from his true skill level.  Speaking of skill, Utley is fantastic in the field.  Advantage: Phillies

Shortstop: Derek Jeter vs. Jimmy Rollins

J-Roll is hitting only .244 in the postseason, while Jeter is about 100 points higher.  In the field, give Rollins the slight advantage but Jeter is the guy I would want up in any postseason situation and has come through time and time again in october.  Advantage: Yankees

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez vs. Pedro Feliz

Had this been any other October, I would have taken a used pair of cleats over A-Rod, but this year I won’t take anyone over him.  Advantage: Yankees

Left Field: Johnny Damon vs. Raul Ibanez

Raul had a great first half of the year but really slowed down when he got hurt.  He’s been crawling through the postseason, hitting .226 with one home run.  Damon hasn’t had a great October either, but he had a decent ALCS.  Raul is the better outfielder, but not by much.  Advantage: Push

Center Field: Melky Cabrera a vs. Shane Victorino

When you least expect it, Melky seems to shine.  Victorino, on the other hand, has been one of the Phillies’ best players this postseason, posting a .361 batting average with three homers and seven RBI.  Advantage: Phillies

Right Field: Nick Swisher vs. Jayson Werth

Werth was 3-4 with two homers in the NLCS clinching game five and is hitting .281 with five home runs in October.  Swish has been quiet, hitting under .200 in October.  Advantage: Phillies

Bench

I’d like to see the Yanks dump the useless Freddy Guzman and bring back Eric Hinske, especially with the loss of the DH in the Philadelphia-hosted games.  Hinske could be a valuable pinch hitter for the pitcher.  Brett Gardner can be a game changer.  It also might be time to reconsider Francisco Cervelli’s place on the postseason roster.  Are three catchers really necessary?  As for the Phils, they have firepower in Matt Stairs and Greg Dobbs but what else?  Eric Bruntlett? Advantage: Push

Starting Pitching

It’s real close between  CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Andy Pettitte versus Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Pedro Martinez.  Each team has it’s veteran (Pettitte v. Martinez) and two lefties in the rotation.  The lefties work to the Yanks advantage since the Phillies big hitters (Howard, Utley, Ibanez) are all lefties.  If each team uses a fourth starter, my guess is Sabathia goes on short rest for the Bronx Bombers to pitch games one, four, and seven and Chad Gaudin goes in game five.  I’ll take that over either Joe Blanton or J.A. Happ.  For that reason alone, Advantage: Yankees

Bullpen

The Phillies have had difficulty closing games all year, but Brad Lidge has looked good in October this year.  With Happ in the pen alongside Ryan Madson, Chan Ho Park, Chad Durbin, et al the Phils have depth, but the game changer is Mariano Rivera who is untouchable in October in his career.  Two home runs in 125 innings and a career postseason ERA of 0.72.  That’s filthy.  While Phil Hughes, David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, and Phil Coke have been far from unhittable in October I still like them more than Philly’s group.  Damaso Marte had a terrible year, but lefties only hit .120 against him.  The Phils are loaded with lefties, so he’ll probably stick around. Advantage: Yankees

Overall Prediction

Pitching wins championships and the Yankees are way too deep, especially with two lefty starters, for the Phils to overcome.  There will be no repeat in Philadelphia this year as the Yanks win #27 in six games.

Pondering the Postseason Roster

With another terrible performance by Joba Chamberlain last night, the Yankees have plenty to think about this week as they prepare their postseason roster.  Here’s what I’m thinking:

Starting Pitchers

• CC Sabathia
• Andy Pettitte
• AJ Burnett
• Chad Gaudin

Relievers

• Joba Chamberlain
• Alfredo Aceves
• Brian Bruney
• Phil Coke
• David Robertson
• Phil Hughes
• Mariano Rivera

Position Players

• C – Jorge Posada, Jose Molina
• 1B – Mark Teixeira
• 2B – Robinson Cano
• SS – Derek Jeter
• 3B – Alex Rodriguez
• OF – Johnny Damon, Brett Gardner, Melky Cabrera, Nick Swisher
• DH – Hideki Matsui
• Bench: Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston, Ramiro Pena

I went with 11 pitchers since Joba has been inconsistent since they started messing around with his pitch counts and schedule.  I think it’s very possible they go with 10 pitchers for the ALDS and leave Gaudin off and throw in another position player.  There has been mention of using Freddy Guzman as pretty much just a pinch-runner, but he hasn’t gotten enough playing time down the stretch, here, so I doubt that.  Maybe Shelley Duncan as another right-handed bat off the bench?  I could also see them keeping Francisco Cervelli around since Jose Molina can’t hit and keeping a third catcher would enable them to pinch run for Posada more often.  Lefty Damaso Marte is also a possibility.  He’s only useful against lefties so I think he’d be a waste of a player in a long series, but maybe in a short series he’d be ok.

Joba vs. Gaudin

If the Yankees proceed on their current course, they should be able to wrap up home-field advantage for the American League playoffs.  That would mean they could choose between two completely different division series and I don’t mean opponent.  One particular division series has an extra off day and such a scenario would enable the Yanks to only have to use three starting pitchers for an entire five game series.  This would mean we don’t have to worry about selecting that fourth starter.  However, if they draw the shorter division series or if they advance to the ALCS, the Yanks would need a fourth starter… who should it be?

It the decision is based solely on recent performance, Chad Gaudin is the choice.  Gaudin has been solid lately, allowing no more than three earned runs in his five starts with the Yankees.  He’s kept them in games and minimized his walks.  On the other hand, Joba Chamberlain has been erratic at best.  In his last six starts, he’s allowed seven earned runs twice and he’s been limited to a maximum of four innings as per the ever-changing and overprotective Joba Rules.

What many Yankee fans will immediately think of is Joba Chamberlain’s success as a reliever back in his rookie year of 2007, but just because he was great then doesn’t mean he’ll replicate those numbers if sent to the pen for the ALDS.  However, some fans will picture the potential for a five inning game – let the starter go five innings and have Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Mariano Rivera slam the door for the last four innings.   If Chamberlain is effective, that would be nice, but there are certainly no guarantees that would even happen.

My opinion?  Win home-field, put Joba in the pen in the ALDS and put him back in the rotation for the ALCS, but have Gaudin ready for long relief work if Chamberlain falters (I can’t imagine Brian Bruney will make the post-season roster, so there’s your roster spot).